Are Car Sales Up Or Down

Switzerland : Rvs Outpace List Prices

• Strong demand, low supply, rising used-car prices: in a nutshell, thats the Swiss used-car market of the past two years.
• In August, the sales-volume index was down 17.7% lower than in July, and 14.8% lower than in August 2021. Yet RVs have grown quicker than list prices, if only slightly so.
• As a result value retention for three-year-old vehicles has reached 50.8% . For BEVs, the %RV gains were 21.4% , for diesel cars, they were up 20.1% and for petrol cars they were up 17.6% .
• The supply of diesels on the used-car market was down 8.7% compared to August 2021, but for BEVs, that figure was 31.6%. Considering the strong demand for used BEVs and other hybrids, that leaves the Swiss used-car market short of stock.
• Average stock market days for two-to-four-year-old passenger cars decreased from July to August to 64 days. Quickest sellers are petrol cars , followed by diesel cars , BEVs , PHEVs and HEVs .
• New-car registrations in 2022 being lower than pre-Covid 2019, market supply will remain tight, even as demand cools. Values for three-year-old used cars are forecast by years end to be up 11% over December 2021, but will decline again in 2023 and the year after.

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What Used Car Shoppers Can Expect

Now, the better news: Used car shoppers paid an average of $28,219 in July. Thats still a small increase from a month before, but analysts think that wont become a trend. Used car prices have mostly dropped.

In fact, the wholesale prices dealers pay for the used cars they sell to the rest of us have started coming down. Thats a good sign for the near future.

The used-vehicle market is returning toward normalcy after more than a year of remarkable price movements, Smoke said. After more than a year of inventory problems, car dealers have restocked their lots. The nationwide supply of used cars is almost back to normal. Thats making prices almost rational again. Our analysts expect used car prices to continue their decline for several more months.

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Car Prices Set To Surge Again This Year

What was supposed to be a very good year for the U.S. auto industry didnt turn out that way in 2021, as automakers battled semiconductor shortages and other problems that repeatedly shut down factories and left showrooms bare. For consumers, that meant record prices and less choice.

Those hoping the situation will improve in 2022 can think again. At best, industry analysts foresee a modest upturn in sales, and possibly another sharp downturn, while car buyers can expect even more price hikes and more dealer shortages.

Based on what we know today, it will be a challenge to match last years sales, said Dave Gardner, executive vice president of national operations for American Honda.

Subaru: Down 20 Percent Citing Low Inventory

Subaru often brags of its long steaks of increasing sales, but that has not held true recently. The brand dropped 20 percent in July compared with last year, to 51,458 units sold. The Forester SUV was up 4 percent, but the Outback, Ascent, Crosstrek, and Legacy were all down significantly. Subaru says it has a low supply of many models, reflecting a larger industry trend as automakers struggle to maintain inventory levels.

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Italy: Sales Slowdown Rv Growth

• In August, %RV in Italy increased by 0.3% compared to July, despite the sales-volume index falling 8.1%.
• Compared to the same month last year, %RV increased by 16.2%, but the sales-volume index was also 29.2% higher than in August last year.
• Average stock days increased slightly to 62 days, with the Toyota C-HR and the Nissan Qashqai being the fastest movers in August.
• Used diesels are doing surprisingly well, with %RV in August up 1.5% over July, and volume up 19.6% over the same month last year.
• In contrast, %RV for BEVs declined 2.2% month on month but were still higher than in August 2021.
• RVs for used LPG and CNG cars were up around 14% compared to August 2021. Both fuel types are well established on the Italian market.

Spain: Shifting To Cheaper Smaller And Older

• In August, available stock volumes on the Spanish used-car market were about half of what they were a year ago. This helps explain the 12.1% year-on-year drop in sales-volume index.
• Economic uncertainty is shifting consumer demand towards cheaper, smaller and older cars. Four out of 10 used cars sold in Spain in 2022 so far were more than 10 years old. Such an ageing stock makes it difficult to transition to a less polluting fleet.
• Shrinking supply leads to rising prices. Buyers pay 30% more today for a vehicle more than seven years old than they did in August 2021.
• The shortage continues to affect vehicles up to four years old. Dealers cant source enough new used cars from the renewals of lease and rental fleets, so imports have become a relevant source of sales, having increased by 50% so far this year.
• RVs rose less than 1% in August, the slowest rate in months. The average price of a three-year-old car with 60,000 km was up 22% compared to August 2022.

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Toyota/lexus: Down 22 Percent Hybrids Up

Toyota and Lexus posted a 22 percent decline in July. The Toyota brand’s numbers were down 21 percent, and the Supra sports carwhich represented just 515 of the Toyota division’s 146,044 total saleswas the only model to post an increase compared with last year. Toyota did note that sales of hybrid models increased 15 percent.

Lexus, Toyota’s luxury brand, did not slide as far as its mainstream stablemate, with a 6 percent decline. Its small crossover models, the UX and NX, both posted sales increases.

Uk : Cost Of Living Affects Willingness To Buy

• The RV for the average three-year-old car in the UK increased by 3.8% in August but that is a reflection more of the shortage of such models than of the overall used-car market.
• As new cars remain in short supply, contract extensions are used to keep fleets up to their required number. This reduces the number of vehicles especially three-year-olds – being defleeted, and creates an imbalance between the supply and demand for vehicles of this age.
• Overall the UKs used-car markets low supply is balanced by its low demand. The average stock market days were 47.2 in August, the same as in July, but 9.5 days longer than in August 2021. It is likely that cost-of-living pressures are affecting UK consumers willingness to buy.

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Uk New Car Sales Fell 9% In July As Supply Chain Problems Continue

Fifth monthly fall in row prompts industry body to cut 2022 forecast even though chip shortages expected to ease

Sales of new cars in the UK fell by nearly a 10th in July because of supply chain problems, forcing the industry body to cut its full-year forecast even though it expects chip shortages to ease in the coming months.

New car registrations in July fell 9% from a year earlier to 112,162 vehicles, as shortages continued to hamper carmakers ability to fulfil orders, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders . Sales fell for the fifth month in a row, although the decrease was the smallest recorded this year.

Large corporate fleets registered an 18.2% decline, to 50,014 vehicles, while sales to consumers held steady at 59,847.

A global shortage of semiconductors, exacerbated by Covid lockdowns in important manufacturing and logistics centres in China, along with the disruption caused by Russias invasion of Ukraine, all restricted production of new cars.

The SMMT said the first half of 2022 had been tougher than anticipated, and cut its full-year forecast for new car sales to 1.6m, down from 1.72m. This is equivalent to a 2.8% drop in sales compared with 2021, and would make 2022 the most challenging year for the industry in three decades. There have been about 2m fewer car registrations since the pandemic began, the equivalent to a whole year of sales.

The Big Picture: We Have A Data Problem

Is the American auto industry climbing back to normal? The best answer we have with August sales data is maybe? Only seven automakers report monthly U.S. sales figures, and that leaves a massive data gap that severely limits the interpretation of monthly sales. Ford, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Subaru, Toyota and Volvo release sales data monthly, but big names like General Motors, Stellantis and Tesla dont. The seven who do tallied 617,363 sales in August, down 1.8 percent year-over-year, according to the Automotive News Research & Data Center.

From the automaker perspective, just how you feel about last months data depends on who you work for. Experts at Cox Automotive take the latest numbers with a grain of salt. Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough shared his cautious optimism. There are small signs that new-vehicle inventory levels are stabilizing, but they are also not getting significantly better. Some automakers have far more inventory than others, and some are managing their operations more efficiently.

Meanwhile, TrueCars analysts see the data as validation for what theyve predicted for months. August is shaping up to confirm our early predictions that the industry may be turning the corner, said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. Were seeing consecutive month over month increases for incentives, while average transaction prices are softening. Inventory is also slowly growing, and sales are improving slightly.

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When Will Car Prices Drop

Used car prices are already starting to drop as the market cools, having seemingly peaked in early 2022. On the other hand, new vehicle prices are unlikely to drop in 2022 due to persistent inflationary pressures.

Theres still a lot of inflation bubbling up in the new vehicle supply chain. Even though raw material costs are falling, suppliers have a lot of other higher non-commodity costs diesel, freight, shipping, logistics, labor, electricity to pass on to automakers, said Brinkman.

In addition, the effects of the chip shortage will continue to linger. Companies will need to rebuild inventory, which means that wholesale demand will compete with retail demand, putting a floor on new vehicle prices. Through to the end of 2022, new vehicle prices will be anywhere from +2.5% to -2.5%, with my bias toward the higher end of that range, said Brinkman.

Auto Sales Fall Again In March Chips Are Down Prices Are Up

A 2021 Chevrolet Tahoe on the assembly line at GMs Arlington Assembly plant.

U.S. auto sales are expected to fall more than 25% in March vs. March 2021, due to the shortage of new cars and trucks for sale, forecasters for J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said.

That also implies a decline of about 18% in auto sales for the first quarter, vs. the first quarter of 2021, according to a joint auto sales forecast from J.D. Power and LMC that was published March 23.

The upshot for consumers is continued record-high prices, record-low incentives, and waiting lists for the most sought-after makes and models.

Consumer responses include:

• Searching for cars and trucks online at dealerships much farther away from home than usual
• Compromising over colors, features and options
• Postponing new-vehicle purchases altogether.

From January 2021 through mid-March 2022, the global semiconductor shortage has reduced North American auto production by around 2.3 million cars and trucks, with a potential impact of more than 3.5 million, if announced production cuts cant be made up, according to AutoForecast Solutions.

The auto industry has become much more dependent on computer chips for advanced electronic systems, as automakers introduce Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, and hybrid and electric vehicles, said Joseph McCabe, president of AutoForecast Solutions, Chester Springs, Pa.

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Cox Automotive reported Thursday that used car sales skidded in August, following a report early this month that new car sales were flat.

This time, its not just inventory. Cox Automotive said the slowdown is beginning to reflect the higher payments caused by both rising prices and rising interest rates.

Cox Automotive estimated that total used-vehicle sales in August were near 3.1 million units, down 11.4% from August 2021. The seasonally adjusted annual rate , or sales pace, is estimated to be near 36.2 million, down from last Augusts 40.8 million level and below Julys revised 38.3 million pace.

Is Now The Time To Buy Sell Or Trade

The past two years have brought a drumbeat of difficult news for car shoppers. Wed love to tell you the end is in sight. But no one is quite sure that it is. Signals lately remain mixed.

Some analysts thought new car prices hit their peak last December. But they soared to new records during the summer.

Used car prices look a bit more rational but still rose in July. That makes this a good time to shop for some and bad time for others, depending on your needs.

So, is it time to head out to buy a car? Read on.

• Tips for Buying a Vehicle Right Now

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Austria : Restricted Supply Remains Key To Rvs

• The supply of two-to-four-year-old used cars in Austria was 0.8% lower than in August last year.
• The volume of diesel cars in August was down by 8.3% compared to the same month last year. However, the volume of BEVs was down by a whopping 46.6%. Demand for BEVs and hybrids is weakening, but their supply remains a challenge.
• Overall supply improved by 2.8% month-on-month, but with sales slowing, average stock days increased to 58.2 days. BEVs are selling fastest , followed by petrol cars , HEVs , diesel cars and PHEVs .
• RVs for three-year-old cars increased modestly, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the list price . The latter rose by 1.3% and 21.7% , with an average value retention of 53.7%. PHEVs had the top trade-in value , BEVs the lowest .
• With new-car sales still noticeably lower than pre-pandemic levels, undersupply of used cars will continue to determine RV levels in Austria well into 2023.

Older Less Expensive Cars Harder To Find

If you hope to find an older vehicle and your budget is less than $15,000, these vehicles are also in short supply. More would-be new car shoppers started buying up the available used cars. So, the short supply is partly due to a lack of inventory of inexpensive used cars.

Americans are holding onto their cars longer than ever. The average car on American roads is now 12.2 years old. And automakers produced fewer cars for several years after the 2008 recession. That leaves few higher-mileage, older used vehicles available to sell.

The easiest used cars to find are priced between $15,000 and $30,000. Cars priced under $15,000 remain in short supply.

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Used Car Sales Down More Than 400000 As Buyers Tighten Belts

• Sales were down more than 18%, with some blaming inflated prices cause by fewer new cars

UK used car sales dropped in the second quarter of 2022, with more than 407,000 fewer vehicles changing hands than in the same period last year.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said this was inevitable due to the squeeze on new car supplies trickling down to the used car market, which had inflated used car prices.

Prices remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic as consumers are willing to pay a premium to avoid having to wait, said Chris Knight, automotive partner at KPMG.

How To Buy A Car Right Now

If you want to purchase a new or used vehicle, be prepared for sticker shock.

But take stock in some good news that the next car you buy will likely last a long time and help you drive safer than ever with all the technology advances and offerings.

Vehicle quality studies repeatedly show that todays new cars suffer fewer problems than those from just a few years before. That means that any buyers of higher-priced used cars will likely see the vehicle driving on the road even longer. The same goes for those buying new ones.

With most automakers now building such durable cars, they compete by adding more and more high-tech features. Features like adaptive cruise control and Apple CarPlay are now more common than ever on entry-level vehicles.

Read on to see our tips on buying a car below.

How to Sell a Car Now

Few of us are in the position of selling a car without needing to buy a replacement for it. But, if thats you, what are you waiting for?

Used car prices began falling from record highs. Moreover, you will get more for your car today than you will tomorrow.

The best way to get the most money for your used car is to sell it privately. But if you dont want the hassle, there is still an opportunity to sell to a dealership.

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